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Galia Orme

Head of Carbon & Legal, One Tribe

2026 is set to be a defining year for the voluntary carbon market (VCM). After a period marked by criticism, volatility, and trust concerns, the market is entering a more mature and disciplined phase. Corporate climate ambition is rising, capital is flowing into new projects at record levels, and integrity standards are tightening. At the same time, the supply of truly high-quality credits remains constrained.

The result is a market that is expanding quickly – but also becoming more selective, more credible, and more competitive.

Market Size: Different Forecasts, Same Direction of Travel

Analysts disagree on the exact size of the VCM in 2026, but they agree on one thing: growth is accelerating.

  • Roots Analysis forecasts a market of approximately USD 1.7 billion in 2026, rising from USD 1.6 billion in 2025, with long-term growth accelerating toward USD 47.5 billion by 2035, driven by verified, high-quality credits and strong corporate demand.

  • Mordor Intelligence presents a far more aggressive outlook, estimating a USD 23.8 billion market in 2026, growing rapidly toward USD 120 billion by 2030, supported by renewable energy, waste, and forestry pipelines.

  • Regreener places the 2026 market at USD 3.04 billion, still expanding at more than 20% CAGR.

  • Bloomberg reports that 2025 saw record-breaking retirements, with more credits retired in the first half of the year than in any previous period, alongside over USD 10 billion committed to new credit generation, three times higher than in 2024.

Despite different estimates, the direction is clear: demand is rising, market value is growing, and confidence is returning as integrity improves.

Asia-Pacific Emerges as the Market’s Centre of Gravity

Asia-Pacific is becoming the fastest-growing region in the VCM, with forecasts suggesting 36–58% CAGR.

Key drivers include:

  • China’s large-scale renewable energy and methane initiatives

  • India’s transition toward compliance under its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme

  • Indonesia’s forestry and peatland projects, supported by regional alliances

North America remains the largest buyer base, expected to capture 30–37% of market share in 2026. Major U.S. corporations continue to sign some of the largest removal deals recorded. In 2025, Microsoft accounted for the majority of durable carbon dioxide removal purchases, setting procurement benchmarks and reinforcing confidence in the market.

Europe, meanwhile, is shaping market integrity. Policies such as CBAM, aviation ETS rules, and the Green Claims Directive are increasing pressure on companies to substantiate climate claims with credible, traceable credits. Demand for long-lived removals is strengthening, often commanding price premiums of more than 300% compared to avoidance credits.

Removals Take the Lead

A major structural shift heading into 2026 is the transition away from low-cost avoidance credits toward premium removal credits.

Removal credits are expected to grow at nearly 56% CAGR, driven by:

  • Biochar
  • BECCS
  • Direct Air Capture
  • High-integrity reforestation and land restoration

     

Price dynamics reflect scarcity:

  • Nature-based projects generally range between USD 7 and USD 24 per tonne, with premium removals projects priced significantly higher.
  • Technology-based removals, such as DAC, often trade above USD 170–USD 500 per tonne, reflecting strong permanence and limited supply.

     

Waste methane management is also expanding rapidly, growing at more than 50% CAGR, supported by landfill methane reduction and oil and gas capture projects.

For the first time, analysts suggest that retirements may be overtaking issuances for premium credits – creating supply constraints, price resilience, and increased competition for the highest-quality projects.

What’s Driving the Market Forward

Three forces are shaping the VCM’s evolution:

  1. Corporate climate ambition
     More companies have net-zero commitments than ever before, with 2030 targets approaching quickly, driving action rather than pledges. 
  2. Policy alignment
     ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles and closer links between voluntary and compliance markets are tightening quality thresholds and limiting low-integrity supply. 
  3. Capital Deployment
     Billions of dollars are flowing into biochar, engineered removals, forestry restoration, and digital market infrastructure, supported by emerging investment vehicles.

Challenges That Build Discipline

The market still faces challenges:

  • High fragmentation, with around two-thirds of transactions happening privately
  • Ongoing price volatility, particularly for nature-based credits
  • Limited supply of premium removals before 2030

     

However, these pressures are strengthening market discipline rather than undermining it. Buyers are becoming more selective, standards are tightening, and developers are investing earlier in quality.

What 2026 Means for the Market

  • Developers benefit from strong demand for high-quality, certified projects, particularly in Asia-Pacific and removals.
  • Buyers are prioritising durable, verified credits that support credible climate claims.
  • Investors are increasingly viewing the VCM as a fast-growing climate asset class, with opportunities balanced by volatility and evolving rules.

Conclusion

2026 is not about speculation.

It is about maturity.

Record retirements, rising investment, Asia-Pacific leadership, stricter governance, and accelerating removals all point to a voluntary carbon market that is stabilising and rewarding credibility.

Source: CarbonCredits.com — “Voluntary Carbon Market in 2026: Top Forecasts and What They Mean for Investors” (December 26, 2025)

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Eric currently works as an independent consultant at the intersection of nature and climate, focused on catalysing market and non-market solutions to drive the just transition.

He previously was Head of Product at Earthshot Labs, supporting nature conservation and restoration projects across the global south secure project finance. Prior to Earthshot Labs, Eric led nature-based carbon project development for Gorongosa National Park in Mozambique and founded the Carbon Cooperative, a global alliance of leading nature conservation and restoration practitioners exploring carbon finance. After serving in the Peace Corps in Mozambique out of university, he spent much of his 20s working in community-based conservation and ecosystem restoration efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa interspersed with two startup ventures as co-founder and CEO of a mental health tech startup and COO of a sustainable coffee company. Eric has a dual Masters in Environmental Engineering and Environmental Policy from Stanford University where he was a NSF Graduate Research Fellow and a BS in Environmental Engineering from Tufts University.

Alan is a risk management thought-leader, superconnector, and FinTech pioneer. His mission is to enable an Earth Positive economy which includes nature in global accounting systems.

Alan is Founder of Generation Blue, a venture studio dedicated to planetary game changers powered by exponential technologies. Previously, Alan established Natural Capital Markets at Lykke AG, pioneering blockchain based forestry and carbon backed tokens. Alan has over two decades of risk management experience advising global financial institutions, and was a founding member of the RiskMetrics Group, a JPMorgan spin-off. Alan is an investor and advisor to regenerative impact ventures, including TreeBuddy.Earth, Regenativ, and Vlinder Climate.

Lori Whitecalf made history when she became the first woman to be elected Chief of Sweetgrass First Nation in 2011. She served three terms of office from 2011-2017.  

Lori took a two-year hiatus from leadership to expand the family ranch and serve as the FSIN Senior Industry Liaison. She was re-elected on November 29. 2019 and again on November 30, 2021, as Chief of Sweetgrass. Chief Whitecalf practises a traditional lifestyle of hunting, fishing and gathering. She currently sits on the following boards: Saskatchewan Indian Institute of Technology, FSIN Lands and Resource Commission, Battle River Treaty 6 Health Centre and Battleford Agency Tribal Chiefs Executive Council, FSIN Women’s Commission.

Tina is the Chief Business Officer for MLTC Industrial Investments, the Economic Development arm of the Meadow Lake Tribal Council. She has a diverse background of experience. Having spent 15 years as a municipal Chief Operating Officer, 20 years involved in Saskatchewan’s Health Authority Board Keewatin Yatthe and 9 years with Northern Lights Board of Education. 

 

She continues as a Board Member with Beaver River Community Futures supporting small business development in her home region. Tina brings a wealth of experience in a variety of fields and many connections to the Indigenous communities of Northern Saskatchewan. In addition Tina holds a BA Advanced from the U of S, a Certificate in Local Government Authority from the U of R and is certified as a Professional Economic Developer for Saskatchewan and a certified Technician Aboriginal Economic Developer (TAED).

Tootoosis’ career spans 40+ years in HRM, political leadership, and Indigenous economic development, as a dedicated bridge builder and advocate for Indigenous causes.
As a key member of the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority (SREDA) team since 2021, he develops strategies for the Truth and Reconciliation Commission final report and Call to Action #92.

He is a graduate of the First Nations University of Canada and a certified Professional Aboriginal Economic Developer. Spearheading various community initiatives while serving as a Chair of the SIEDN while directing ILDII and WIBF. Founder of MGT Consulting Tootoosis is based in Saskatoon, Treaty Six Territory.

Cy Standing (Wakanya Najin in Dakota) has a long and distinguished career including serving overseas as an Electronics Technician in the Royal Canadian Air Force, former Chief of Wahpeton Dakota Nation, former Vice Chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indigenous Nations (FSIN), past Executive Director of Community Development Branch of the Department of Northern Saskatchewan as well as an Order in Council appointment to the Federal Parole Board.  

Mr. Standing has served as a Director on many Profit and Non-Profit Corporate Boards, including serving as a Director for Affinity Credit Union with assets of over six billion dollars as well as IMI Brokerage and Wanuskewin and is currently a member of the One Tribe Indigenous Carbon Board.